Wildfires slash global forest recovery capacity, study warns

Chinese and international scientists have uncovered a significant deterioration in global forest recovery capacity following large-scale wildfires in the 21st century, with fewer than one-third of the affected forests able to regenerate within seven years after the fire.

Published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution, the study identifies key drivers of forest recovery across different climatic zones and time periods, while revealing for the first time an increasing positive sensitivity of forest resilience to wildfire severity – a factor that heightens the risk of future global forest degradation.

Led by Chen Ziyue from Beijing Normal University, Wu Zhaoyang from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Josep Penuelas of Spain's Autonomous University of Barcelona, the research team analyzed 3,281 major wildfire events worldwide using a hybrid methodological framework.

Key findings show that after 2010, the median severity of large wildfires surged by 42.9 percent in arid regions and 54.3 percent in boreal zones, with North America's western regions, northern-central Siberia and southeastern Australia hardest hit. Post-fire recovery rates have sharply declined since 2010, as areas experiencing stalled recovery rose from 22.6 percent to 25.6 percent – with canopy structure and productivity exhibiting particular difficulties in restoration.

The study warns that diminished post-fire resilience could lead to catastrophic losses in biodiversity, biological resources and carbon sinks far exceeding direct fire emissions, profoundly disrupting global carbon cycling dynamics. Compounded by worsening climate extremes such as heatwaves and droughts, fire-impacted forest ecosystems now face unprecedented challenges in natural regeneration.

Natural recovery mechanisms can no longer cope with intensifying climate pressures, Chen said, calling for systematic international interventions during critical post-fire recovery phases, including scientifically planned reforestation and ecological restoration projects.

Australian expert David Bowman from the University of Tasmania described the research as "an influential paper about a deeply serious topic."